Deep learning systems as complex networks

Thanks to the availability of large scale digital datasets and massive amounts of computational power, deep learning algorithms can learn representations of data by exploiting multiple levels of abstraction. These machine learning methods have greatly improved the state-of-the-art in many challenging cognitive tasks, such as visual object recognition, speech processing, natural language understanding and automatic translation. In particular, one class of deep learning models, known as deep belief networks, can discover intricate statistical structure in large data sets in a completely unsupervised fashion, by learning a generative model of the data using Hebbian-like learning mechanisms. Although these self-organizing systems can be conveniently formalized within the framework of statistical mechanics, their internal functioning remains opaque, because their emergent dynamics cannot be solved analytically. In this article we propose to study deep belief networks using techniques commonly employed in the study of complex networks, in order to gain some insights into the structural and functional properties of the computational graph resulting from the learning process.Comment: 20 pages, 9 figure

Growth or Reproduction: Emergence of an Evolutionary Optimal Strategy

Modern ecology has re-emphasized the need for a quantitative understanding of the original 'survival of the fittest theme' based on analyzis of the intricate trade-offs between competing evolutionary strategies that characterize the evolution of life. This is key to the understanding of species coexistence and ecosystem diversity under the omnipresent constraint of limited resources. In this work we propose an agent based model replicating a community of interacting individuals, e.g. plants in a forest, where all are competing for the same finite amount of resources and each competitor is characterized by a specific growth-reproduction strategy. We show that such an evolution dynamics drives the system towards a stationary state characterized by an emergent optimal strategy, which in turn depends on the amount of available resources the ecosystem can rely on. We find that the share of resources used by individuals is power-law distributed with an exponent directly related to the optimal strategy. The model can be further generalized to devise optimal strategies in social and economical interacting systems dynamics.Comment: 10 pages, 5 figure

Early warning signs in social-ecological networks

Social ecological systems are often difficult to investigate and manage because of their inherent complexity1. Small variations in external drivers can lead to abrupt changes associated with instabilities and bifurcations in the underlying dynamics2-4. Anticipating critical transitions and divergence from the present state of the system is particularly crucial to the prevention or mitigation of the effects of unwanted and irreversible changes5-10. Recent research in ecology has focused on leading indicators of regime shift in ecosystems characterized by one state variable5,7,11,12. The case of systems with several mutually interacting components, however, has remained poorly investigated13, while the connection between network stability and research on indicators for loss of resilience has been elusive14. Here we develop a theoretical framework to analyze early warning signs of instability and regime shift in social ecological networks. We provide analytical expressions for a set of precursors of instability in social ecological systems with additive noise for a variety of network structures. In particular, we show that the covariance matrix of the dynamics can effectively anticipate the emergence of instability. We also compare signals of early warning based on the dynamics of suitably selected nodes, to indicators based on the integrated behavior of the whole network. We find that the performances of these indicators are affected by the network structure and the type of interaction among nodes. These results provide new advances in multidimensional early warning analysis and offer a framework to evaluate the resilience of social ecological networks.Comment: 14 pages, 4 figures. Supplementary Information available upon reques

Species survival and scaling laws in hostile and disordered environments

In this work we study the likelihood of survival of single-species in the context of hostile and disordered environments. Population dynamics in this environment, as modeled by the Fisher equation, is characterized by negative average growth rate, except in some random spatially distributed patches that may support life. In particular, we are interested in the phase diagram of the survival probability and in the critical size problem, i.e., the minimum patch size required for surviving in the long time dynamics. We propose a measure for the critical patch size as being proportional to the participation ratio (PR) of the eigenvector corresponding to the largest eigenvalue of the linearized Fisher dynamics. We obtain the (extinction-survival) phase diagram and the probability distribution function (PDF) of the critical patch sizes for two topologies, namely, the one-dimensional system and the fractal Peano basin. We show that both topologies share the same qualitative features, but the fractal topology requires higher spatial fluctuations to guarantee species survival. We perform a finite-size scaling and we obtain the associated scaling exponents. In addition, we show that the PDF of the critical patch sizes has an universal shape for the 1D case in terms of the model parameters (diffusion, growth rate, etc.). In contrast, the diffusion coefficient has a drastic effect on the PDF of the critical patch sizes of the fractal Peano basin, and it does not obey the same scaling law of the 1D case.Comment: 20 pages, 5 Figure

Neutral dynamics with environmental noise: age-size statistics and species lifetimes

Neutral dynamics, where taxa are assumed to be demographically equivalent and their abundance is governed solely by the stochasticity of the underlying birth-death process, has proved itself as an important minimal model that accounts for many empirical datasets in genetics and ecology. However, the restriction of the model to demographic [${\cal{O}} ({\sqrt N})$] noise yields relatively slow dynamics that appears to be in conflict with both short-term and long-term characteristics of the observed systems. Here we analyze two of these problems - age size relationships and species extinction time - in the framework of a neutral theory with both demographic and environmental stochasticity. It turns out that environmentally induced variations of the demographic rates control the long-term dynamics and modify dramatically the predictions of the neutral theory with demographic noise only, yielding much better agreement with empirical data. We consider two prototypes of "zero mean" environmental noise, one which is balanced with regard to the arithmetic abundance, another balanced in the logarithmic (fitness) space, study their species lifetime statistics and discuss their relevance to realistic models of community dynamics

Virtual water controlled demographic growth of nations

Population growth is in general constrained by food production, which in turn depends on the access to water resources. At a country level, some populations use more water than they control because of their ability to import food and the virtual water required for its production. Here, we investigate the dependence of demographic growth on available water resources for exporting and importing nations. By quantifying the carrying capacity of nations based on calculations of the virtual water available through the food trade network, we point to the existence of a global water unbalance. We suggest that current export rates will not be maintained and consequently we question the long-run sustainability of the food trade system as a whole. Water rich regions are likely to soon reduce the amount of virtual water they export, thus leaving import-dependent regions without enough water to sustain their populations. We also investigate the potential impact of possible scenarios that might mitigate these effects through (1) cooperative interactions among nations whereby water rich countries maintain a tiny fraction of their food production available for export; (2) changes in consumption patterns; and (3) a positive feedback between demographic growth and technological innovations. We find that these strategies may indeed reduce the vulnerability of water-controlled societies.Comment: 11 pages, 3 figure

Reconciling cooperation, biodiversity and stability in complex ecological communities

Empirical observations show that ecological communities can have a huge number of coexisting species, also with few or limited number of resources. These ecosystems are characterized by multiple type of interactions, in particular displaying cooperative behaviors. However, standard modeling of population dynamics based on Lotka-Volterra type of equations predicts that ecosystem stability should decrease as the number of species in the community increases and that cooperative systems are less stable than communities with only competitive and/or exploitative interactions. Here we propose a stochastic model of population dynamics, which includes exploitative interactions as well as cooperative interactions induced by cross-feeding. The model is exactly solved and we obtain results for relevant macro-ecological patterns, such as species abundance distributions and correlation functions. In the large system size limit, any number of species can coexist for a very general class of interaction networks and stability increases as the number of species grows. For pure mutualistic/commensalistic interactions we determine the topological properties of the network that guarantee species coexistence. We also show that the stationary state is globally stable and that inferring species interactions through species abundance correlation analysis may be misleading. Our theoretical approach thus show that appropriate models of cooperation naturally leads to a solution of the long-standing question about complexity-stability paradox and on how highly biodiverse communities can coexist.Comment: 25 pages, 10 figure

Ecohydrological Footprints:Quantitative Response of Ecosystems to Changes in their Hydrological Drivers

Ecohydrological footprints are defined as the response of ecosystem functions or services to changes in their hydrologic drivers. In this thesis, several diverse footprints are addressed: noise-driven effects on storage-discharge relations and catchment streamflow distributions, that are important drivers of biodiversity; soil salinization and its ecohydrological implications; topological effects of the ecological interaction networks on living communities (e.g. on their species persistence); and form and function of the global virtual water trade network. The coherence of the conceptual framework is provided by the study of drivers and controls of ecohydrological variability using methodological approaches based on statistical mechanics. In fact, this thesis work outlines a significant portion of environmental statistical mechanics, an overarching discipline that is emerging in recent years, which applies mathematical tools from statistical mechanics to model several ecohydrological processes. The proposed relevance of this thesis lies in the major effects of hydrologic drivers on ecological process. The view that emerges from current research in ecohydrology, that this thesis supports, is that there exists a definite need for an integrated understanding of ecological and hydrological processes. Because stochasticity is intrinsic to environmental and ecohydrological variability, noise plays an important and constructive role in ecohydrological processes. In this thesis, a stochastic approach is applied to analyze different ecohydrological processes, ranging from green and blue water flows in river basins (part I), ecosystem dynamics affected by the directional dispersal provided by river networks (part II) to water footprints of human society (part III).Methods range from novel exact solutions to stochastic differential equations to random graph theory applications, and imply the analysis of suitable field data. An analytical framework for quantitative analysis is laid out to tackle complex problems and to estimate the effects of environmental change on the interaction of the hydrologic processes with the biota. The main results of this thesis are: i) the achievement of exact solutions for the probability distribution of catchment streamflow, that takes in account stochastic fluctuations in the storage-discharge relation and for the condition of a noise induced phenomena to the streamflows regimes; ii) the stationary solutions of soil salinity under stochastic hydrologic forcing; iii) a novel solution of the Ito-Stratonovich problem in multiplicative Poisson processes; iv) the proper framework for species' persistence time distributions, as a function of topological constraints on the ecosystem, and its connection with other important macroecological laws. A related length-bias sampling problem is also solved. v) A statistical analysis of the global virtual trade network and a semi-analytical model that is able to describe most of the observed properties

Testing the critical brain hypothesis using a phenomelogical renormalization group

We present a systematic study to test a recently introduced phenomenological renormalization group, proposed to coarse-grain data of neural activity from their correlation matrix. The approach allows, at least in principle, to establish whether the collective behavior of the network of spiking neurons is described by a non-Gaussian critical fixed point. We test this renormalization procedure in a variety of models focusing in particular on the contact process, which displays an absorbing phase transition at $\lambda = \lambda_c$ between a silent and an active state. We find that the results of the coarse-graining do not depend on the presence of long-range interactions, but some scaling features persist in the super-critical system up to a distance of $10\%$ from $\lambda_c$. Our results provide insights on the possible subtleties that one needs to consider when applying such phenomenological approaches directly to data to infer signatures of criticality.Comment: 9 pages, 8 figure